Looking at two other deadly members of the coronavirus family, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), could, Bollyky says, help us understand how COVID-19 may act in the summer heat. “Rate of virus spread, effectiveness of infection control practices, weather and human immunity will likely all play a role in determining its future,” she says.Īdditionally, because COVID-19 is so new, “there is no natural immunity in the population and thus all bets are off,” says John Nicholls of the University of Hong Kong. McGraw, of Penn State University, says there will likely be many factors that determine when and how the outbreak ends. Other health experts that TIME spoke to agree that it’s too early to say if warmer weather will impact the virus’s spread.
“We haven’t been through even a single year with this pathogen.” “I think it’s premature to assume that,” she said during a call with reporters on Feb. Nancy Messionnier of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, warned against assuming the number of cases will slow as the weather warms. The common cold is most prevalent in the winter and spring, and influenza is most common during the fall and winter in the U.S., with flu activity peaking between December and February, according to the CDC.īut health experts aren’t so sure that COVID-19, which has infected more than 83,000 people since officials first discovered the disease in December, can be stopped by the onset of summer.ĭr. There’s precedent for the idea that the COVID-19 outbreak will collapse with the onset of summer.
Keep up to date with our daily coronavirus newsletter by clicking here. Malaysia has confirmed more than 1,500 cases of the virus more than 500 people are infected in Indonesia and in Singapore, where the average temperature is around 80☏ year-round, more than 500 cases of the virus have been confirmed, despite rigorous detection methods and strict quarantine rules. However, the spread of coronavirus has also shown that hot and humid weather will not stop coronavirus infections entirely.
One study published in March by Chinese researchers found that before the Chinese government began imposing lockdowns in late January, cities that were warmer and more humid reported a slower rate of infection.Īnother, published in mid-March by researchers from Spain and Finland, found that 95% of infections globally have so far occurred at temperatures between about 28° and 50° F, and in dry climates. Two other recently published studies draw similar conclusions.
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